n Macro and monsoons to determine the course
GDP shocker in 4Q FY12 drags down FY12 growth to five-year low
n Strong Manufacturing and Services Sector PMI in May – Pricing power intact- Will it constrain RBI from cutting rates?
Strong manufacturing PMI and pricing power intact
Strong services PMI indicating reaccelerated activity
n How much would the rates fall?
Government’s massive borrowing program, likely fiscal slippage, falling crude prices and plunging rupee
Falling crude prices a big positive for India. Advantage some what blunted by plunge in the Rupee
n Five macro causes of worry: CAD, Fiscal deficit, plunging growth, somnolent reforms, monsoons
Temporal and Spatial distribution of monsoon is the key
n Rupee: On a slippery slope
Risk on trade in equities in Q4FY12 reversing in Apr-May’12
n Reforms juggernaut stuck in political quicksand:
Does Petrol price hike presage the flurry of impending reforms
n India Presidential polls:
Will the reforms take-off post the polls?
n Risk-off trade sees equities under pressure:
n Markets: Delicately poised
Macro issues to determine the course of the Indian markets
Coal India, ITC, State Bank of India, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid Corporation, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories, Adani Port & SEZ
LIC Housing Finance, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Products, YES Bank, Shree Cement, SJVN, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals, Amara Raja Batteries, NIIT Technologies, Persistent Systems, KEC International
Source: Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.