Current Trading Views
The following trading ideas from the Global Markets Group reflect shorter-term views, which may differ from the longer-term ‘structural’ positions included in our ‘Top Trades’ list further below.
In FX:
1. Stay short $/CNY via 1-yr NDFs, opened at 6.7550 on 10 June 2010, and a trailing stop of 6.70 for the $/CNY spot rate, now at 6.4991.
2. Stay long EUR/TRY, opened at 2.1620 on 9 February 2011, with a target of 2.35 and a stop on a close below 2.09, now at 2.2528.
3. Stay long EUR/$, opened at 1.4085 on 18 March 2011, with a target of 1.50 and a stop on a close below 1.35, now at 1.4077.
4. Stay short $/MYR via 1-yr NDFs, opened at 3.066 on 31 March 2011, with a target of 2.90 (spot) and a stop on a close above 3.08 (spot).
5. Stay short $/PHP via 1-yr NDFs, opened at 43.11 on April 7 2011, with a target of 41.50 and a stop on a close above 44.50, now at 43.501.
On Rates:
1. Pay 5-yr Swiss swap rates vs Euroland, opened at -137bp on 4 March 2011, for a target of -100bp and a stop on a close below -152bp, now at -133.5bp.
2. Pay 5-yr Korean swaps, opened at 4.04% on 21 March 2011, for a target of 4.40% and a stop on a close below 3.80%, now at 3.94%.
In Equity:
1. Stay short UK consumer growth (GSTWUKCG), opened at 88.8 on 4 May 2011, for a target of 84 and a stop on a close above 90.5, now at 86.9.
6. Recommended Top Trades for 2011 (opened on 01 December 2010 unless otherwise stated)
1. Stay short $/CNY via 2-yr NDFs, opened at 6.3677, for a target of 5.90, now at 6.3206.
2. Close long large cap US commercial banks (BKX), for a potential profit of 13%.
3. Close long high yield spreads (CDX HY), opened at 533.34, after reaching its target on 4 February 2011 with a potential profit of 5.2%.
4. Stay long Nikkei 225 (NKY), opened at 9988.05, with a target of 12000, now at 9477.17.
5. Close long a basket of Crude, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum (‘CCCP’), for a potential profit of 25%.
6. Stay long 5-yr JPY Inflation Swaps, opened at -13bp on 16 February 2011, with a target of 40bp, now at 0bp.
7. Stay long EM equities via EEM, opened at 48.51 on 30 March 2011, with a target of 55, now at 46.09.
8. Go short $/NOK, opened at 5.60 on May 23 2011, with a target of 5.00, now at 5.586.